The race to pump weapons can determine the war in Ukraine 5
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on April 11 that Russia is strengthening its forces around Donbass, with a large military convoy approaching the city of Izyum, but has not launched a campaign in eastern Ukraine, but is only conducting a campaign in eastern Ukraine.
The movement of troops to eastern Ukraine was carried out by the Russian army after declaring the completion of phase one of the special military campaign and withdrawing most forces from the suburbs of Kiev as well as northern Ukraine.
The Kremlin described this decision to withdraw troops to `show goodwill to negotiate` with Ukraine, but two weeks have passed after the conference in Istanbul, Turkey on March 29, and the two countries’ delegations have yet to organize further meetings.
Kiev officials and allies and experts assess that in the upcoming battles in the east, the Ukrainian armed forces will face completely different fighting conditions and forms compared to the first phase of the war.
General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, last week assessed that Ukraine had been successful in the early stages of the war, holding off Russian forces in the north thanks to a combination of urban and military operations.
Ukrainian police patrol in the village of Dmytrivka, western Ukraine on April 2, after Russian forces withdrew from the area north of Kiev.
However, the battlefield situation in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine will be a different story, as the battles take place on open terrain, causing Ukrainian forces to lose their urban combat advantage.
Ukrainian and Western defense officials both believe that with the new battlefield situation, Kiev will need more heavy weapons, not just anti-tank missiles and shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missiles like over the past month.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba last week emphasized that the country needs more Western support from fighters, armor, land-launched anti-ship missiles and heavy air defense complexes.
`We still have to depend on our partners for weapons supplies. Unfortunately, we do not have enough weapons to end the conflict sooner,` Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on April 11.
Mr. Zelensky warned that if the West does not quickly provide more heavy weapons to Ukraine, they will `waste the time and lives` of the country’s people.
Western intelligence predicts that Ukraine has only a few weeks left to increase its numbers and deploy heavy weapons to the eastern front.
Once the goal of completely controlling Donbass or even reaching the right bank of the Dniper line is achieved, Russian forces will have more advantages to change tactics, strengthen defense and control on the ground, and enter the phase
Ben Hodges, former commander of the US military in Europe under two presidents, Barack Obama and Donald Trump, said that Ukraine does not have much time left to rearm before the next phase of hostilities begins.
`The next three weeks are pivotal, potentially determining whether Ukraine has a chance to stop the advance of Russian forces or if the fighting will last for many more months or years,` he said.
NATO is focusing on assessing whether the fighting in Ukraine has a chance to end quickly, or will turn into a prolonged armed conflict like in Syria, a Western official revealed to Bloomberg.
Ukrainian soldiers on armored vehicles move through the city of Severodonetsk, Donetsk province in the Donbass region, April 7.
Because a series of economic and diplomatic sanctions from the US and its allies have so far hardly changed Russia’s strategic calculations, British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said that the West needs to pay more attention to aid.
NATO was initially hesitant to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine, especially after Russia threatened to consider Western arms shipments to Kiev `legitimate targets`.
However, as the risk of a fierce war in eastern Ukraine grew, Western countries began to be less cautious about providing heavy weapons aid to Kiev.
According to these officials, Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their combat capabilities, and demonstrated their ability to hold off the Russian army and adapt well in the training process to use Western weapons.
`Initially, we mainly supported weapons that the Ukrainian army could use immediately. Now, we realize they need more modern equipment,` Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Margiris Abukevicius shared.
Fighting hot spots in eastern Ukraine.
During a surprise visit to Kiev on April 9, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson agreed to send an additional 120 armored vehicles and anti-ship missiles to Ukraine.
Australia also announced plans to send 20 Bushmaster armored vehicles at the request of President Zelensky, along with an aid package of weapons and anti-tank ammunition worth about 20 million USD.
The US announced it would send Switchblade unmanned combat aircraft and provide additional Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine.
US National Security Advisor John Sullivan revealed that the Pentagon is considering a new arms aid package for Ukraine, including many types of modern weapons that are `unprecedented` and will have the ability to make an impact.
These moves are expected to create the necessary push for Eastern European countries to increase heavy weapons aid to Ukraine.
`With increasingly drastic decisions from the US and the Czech Republic, Western countries can now launch a race to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine, in order to determine the battlefield situation in the east of the country.`
